クロスチョップ

結果

3回のクロスチョップで確4を倒す確率は、ピントレンズ(39.8%)，ピントレンズ・光の粉(30.9%)，フラット(31.7%)，光の粉(24.2%)

検証

カイリキー50 カイリキー 196 クロスチョップ ? 眠る 寝言 FFFF
スイクン50 スイクン 206 波乗り 冷凍ビーム 眠る 寝言 1FFF

ダメージ一覧

通常 急所 確定数
クロスチョップ 62～67～73 122～133～144 3(22.43%)
（黒帯） 67～73～79 132～144～156 3(98.27%)
波乗り 57～62～67 112～122～132 3(1.4%)
（神秘の雫） 62～67～73 122～133～144 3(83.18%)

確定数は急所や命中率を含まない。

シミュレート

new_approx を用いて各対面を100000回試行した。p1_ai[40,30], p2_ai[65,32]（神秘の雫=35, その他=32）

確定4発を倒す確率

カイリキー 53スイクン #2 #3 #4
ピントレンズ * 7.00% 39.86% 70.97%
ピントレンズ 光の粉 5.68% 30.94% 58.76%
* * 3.97% 31.67% 65.11%
* 光の粉 3.22% 24.17% 52.39%

無抵抗の53スイクンでシミュレート。期待値と近似した。

クロスチョップと波乗りの応酬をシミュレート

カイリキー スイクン #2 #3 #4 勝率
黒帯 * 25.95% - 0.70% - 73.35% 58.08% - 14.78% - 27.14% 58.08% - 41.92% - 0.00% 58.08% - 41.92%
黒帯 ピントレンズ 25.88% - 2.04% - 72.07% 52.40% - 25.58% - 22.01% 52.40% - 47.60% - 0.00% 52.40% - 47.60%
黒帯 光の粉 21.05% - 0.66% - 78.29% 48.00% - 15.82% - 36.18% 48.00% - 52.00% - 0.00% 48.00% - 52.00%
光の粉 * 9.57% - 0.58% - 89.85% 34.99% - 14.03% - 50.98% 42.37% - 50.59% - 7.04% 45.58% - 54.42%
先制の爪 * 9.80% - 0.67% - 89.53% 35.42% - 16.71% - 47.88% 41.11% - 58.89% - 0.00% 41.11% - 58.89%
光の粉 黄金の実 6.89% - 0.61% - 92.50% 29.54% - 14.37% - 56.10% 37.28% - 54.59% - 8.13% 40.58% - 59.42%
光の粉 ピントレンズ 9.65% - 1.71% - 88.63% 31.82% - 24.40% - 43.78% 38.01% - 56.06% - 5.92% 40.40% - 59.60%
先制の爪 先制の爪 9.70% - 0.67% - 89.63% 34.98% - 16.96% - 48.05% 39.39% - 60.61% - 0.00% 39.39% - 60.61%
光の粉 光の粉 7.78% - 0.58% - 91.64% 27.92% - 14.14% - 57.94% 34.42% - 55.57% - 10.01% 38.25% - 61.75%
ピントレンズ * 12.07% - 0.72% - 87.21% 37.92% - 17.54% - 44.54% 37.92% - 62.08% - 0.00% 37.92% - 62.08%
先制の爪 ピントレンズ 9.63% - 1.96% - 88.41% 31.88% - 28.66% - 39.46% 36.51% - 63.49% - 0.00% 36.51% - 63.49%
先制の爪 黄金の実 6.80% - 0.68% - 92.52% 29.48% - 17.43% - 53.09% 35.59% - 64.41% - 0.00% 35.59% - 64.41%
黄金の実 * 9.89% - 0.57% - 89.54% 34.27% - 16.83% - 48.90% 34.27% - 65.73% - 0.00% 34.27% - 65.73%
* * 9.70% - 0.73% - 89.56% 34.00% - 17.96% - 48.03% 34.00% - 66.00% - 0.00% 34.00% - 66.00%
黒帯 黄金の実 15.25% - 0.72% - 84.03% 33.98% - 16.98% - 49.04% 33.98% - 66.02% - 0.00% 33.98% - 66.02%
黄金の実 神秘の雫 9.20% - 4.65% - 86.15% 33.91% - 17.15% - 48.94% 33.91% - 66.09% - 0.00% 33.91% - 66.09%
先制の爪 光の粉 7.99% - 0.70% - 91.32% 28.13% - 17.06% - 54.81% 33.17% - 66.83% - 0.00% 33.17% - 66.83%
ピントレンズ ピントレンズ 11.72% - 2.08% - 86.20% 32.92% - 30.31% - 36.77% 32.92% - 67.08% - 0.00% 32.92% - 67.08%
ピントレンズ 黄金の実 8.84% - 0.68% - 90.48% 32.73% - 17.98% - 49.29% 32.73% - 67.27% - 0.00% 32.73% - 67.27%
ピントレンズ 光の粉 9.60% - 0.67% - 89.73% 30.18% - 17.68% - 52.14% 30.18% - 69.82% - 0.00% 30.18% - 69.82%
黄金の実 ピントレンズ 9.71% - 1.74% - 88.55% 29.93% - 29.89% - 40.18% 29.93% - 70.07% - 0.00% 29.93% - 70.07%
* ピントレンズ 9.52% - 2.04% - 88.44% 29.61% - 30.85% - 39.55% 29.61% - 70.39% - 0.00% 29.61% - 70.39%
黒帯 神秘の雫 23.71% - 9.15% - 67.14% 29.30% - 66.02% - 4.67% 29.30% - 70.70% - 0.00% 29.30% - 70.70%
黄金の実 黄金の実 6.98% - 0.59% - 92.42% 28.68% - 17.42% - 53.90% 28.68% - 71.32% - 0.00% 28.68% - 71.32%
* 黄金の実 6.80% - 0.69% - 92.51% 28.11% - 18.38% - 53.51% 28.11% - 71.89% - 0.00% 28.11% - 71.89%
黄金の実 光の粉 7.78% - 0.62% - 91.59% 27.16% - 17.46% - 55.38% 27.16% - 72.84% - 0.00% 27.16% - 72.84%
* 光の粉 7.96% - 0.69% - 91.34% 27.07% - 18.11% - 54.83% 27.07% - 72.94% - 0.00% 27.07% - 72.94%
光の粉 神秘の雫 8.75% - 7.58% - 83.67% 18.15% - 62.80% - 19.05% 20.23% - 77.80% - 1.97% 20.63% - 79.37%
先制の爪 神秘の雫 9.02% - 8.77% - 82.21% 18.77% - 72.98% - 8.25% 19.77% - 80.23% - 0.00% 19.77% - 80.23%
ピントレンズ 神秘の雫 10.94% - 9.09% - 79.98% 15.40% - 76.98% - 7.62% 15.40% - 84.60% - 0.00% 15.40% - 84.60%
* 神秘の雫 8.93% - 9.16% - 81.91% 13.10% - 78.79% - 8.11% 13.10% - 86.90% - 0.00% 13.10% - 86.90%

3ターン目以降をスイクンは応じられないため寝言や交代で流れる。

双方の寝言をシミュレート

カイリキー スイクン クロスチョップ・地震・眠る 勝率（地震） クロスチョップ・眠る 勝率（ロロノア）
黒帯 * 41.80% - 18.08% - 40.12% 69.80% - 30.20% 53.89% - 13.69% - 32.42% 79.75% - 20.25%
黒帯 黄金の実 40.17% - 18.68% - 41.15% 68.26% - 31.74% 52.12% - 13.99% - 33.89% 78.84% - 21.16%
黒帯 光の粉 32.95% - 21.06% - 45.99% 61.00% - 39.00% 45.99% - 15.31% - 38.70% 75.02% - 24.98%
黒帯 ピントレンズ 37.46% - 26.00% - 36.55% 59.03% - 40.97% 50.39% - 19.54% - 30.08% 72.06% - 27.94%
光の粉 黄金の実 25.41% - 18.86% - 55.73% 57.40% - 42.60% 28.19% - 15.73% - 56.08% 64.19% - 35.81%
光の粉 * 25.53% - 19.00% - 55.47% 57.32% - 42.68% 28.03% - 15.89% - 56.08% 63.82% - 36.18%
ピントレンズ 黄金の実 24.04% - 20.49% - 55.48% 53.99% - 46.01% 27.60% - 17.27% - 55.14% 61.51% - 38.49%
ピントレンズ * 23.73% - 20.63% - 55.64% 53.50% - 46.50% 27.15% - 17.12% - 55.73% 61.32% - 38.68%
黄金の実 黄金の実 25.52% - 18.94% - 55.54% 57.40% - 42.60% 24.92% - 17.10% - 57.98% 59.30% - 40.70%
黄金の実 * 21.17% - 20.67% - 58.16% 50.60% - 49.40% 24.81% - 17.24% - 57.95% 59.00% - 41.00%
* 黄金の実 19.13% - 21.48% - 59.38% 47.11% - 52.89% 23.19% - 17.68% - 59.13% 56.74% - 43.26%
光の粉 光の粉 19.25% - 20.72% - 60.03% 48.15% - 51.85% 22.43% - 17.23% - 60.34% 56.56% - 43.44%
* * 19.27% - 20.97% - 59.76% 47.89% - 52.11% 23.09% - 17.90% - 59.00% 56.33% - 43.67%
黒帯 神秘の雫 32.77% - 43.44% - 23.80% 43.00% - 57.00% 44.45% - 35.19% - 20.36% 55.82% - 44.18%
先制の爪 先制の爪 27.80% - 29.02% - 43.18% 48.93% - 51.07% 30.57% - 25.25% - 44.18% 54.77% - 45.23%
先制の爪 * 29.18% - 31.16% - 39.66% 48.36% - 51.64% 31.70% - 26.86% - 41.44% 54.14% - 45.86%
ピントレンズ 光の粉 17.84% - 23.10% - 59.06% 43.58% - 56.42% 22.33% - 19.11% - 58.56% 53.89% - 46.11%
光の粉 ピントレンズ 23.13% - 26.41% - 50.47% 46.69% - 53.31% 26.05% - 22.79% - 51.16% 53.34% - 46.66%
先制の爪 黄金の実 27.98% - 31.54% - 40.47% 47.01% - 52.99% 30.23% - 27.47% - 42.30% 52.39% - 47.61%
黄金の実 光の粉 15.90% - 23.24% - 60.86% 40.63% - 59.37% 20.22% - 19.33% - 60.45% 51.13% - 48.87%
* 光の粉 14.21% - 23.93% - 61.85% 37.26% - 62.74% 19.16% - 19.35% - 61.50% 49.75% - 50.25%
ピントレンズ ピントレンズ 21.15% - 29.88% - 48.96% 41.45% - 58.55% 25.19% - 25.88% - 48.93% 49.32% - 50.68%
黄金の実 ピントレンズ 18.90% - 29.45% - 51.66% 39.09% - 60.91% 22.71% - 25.66% - 51.62% 46.95% - 53.05%
先制の爪 光の粉 22.70% - 34.61% - 42.69% 39.61% - 60.39% 25.76% - 30.01% - 44.23% 46.19% - 53.81%
先制の爪 ピントレンズ 26.54% - 39.38% - 34.08% 40.26% - 59.74% 28.70% - 35.91% - 35.39% 44.42% - 55.58%
* ピントレンズ 16.60% - 31.02% - 52.38% 34.86% - 65.14% 21.35% - 26.75% - 51.90% 44.38% - 55.62%
黄金の実 神秘の雫 18.01% - 36.60% - 45.39% 32.98% - 67.02% 21.76% - 33.16% - 45.08% 39.63% - 60.37%
光の粉 神秘の雫 20.67% - 43.09% - 36.24% 32.42% - 67.58% 22.86% - 41.50% - 35.64% 35.52% - 64.48%
ピントレンズ 神秘の雫 17.94% - 50.42% - 31.64% 26.24% - 73.76% 20.71% - 49.41% - 29.89% 29.53% - 70.47%
先制の爪 神秘の雫 21.18% - 59.46% - 19.37% 26.27% - 73.73% 22.70% - 58.78% - 18.52% 27.86% - 72.14%
* 神秘の雫 14.17% - 52.66% - 33.18% 21.20% - 78.80% 17.53% - 51.24% - 31.23% 25.49% - 74.51%

眠るタイミングは最大乱数耐え、スイクンは急所や2発分の高乱数のリスクを受けて中乱数で押し切る条件で算出。勝率は20ターン目の評価。

期待値

クロスチョップを応酬したとき n 回中 m 回命中する確率。

命中率

n/m 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 20.3% 79.7% * * * * * * *
2 4.1% 32.4% 63.5% * * * * * *
3 0.8% 9.9% 38.7% 50.6% * * * * *
4 0.2% 2.7% 15.7% 41.1% 40.3% * * * *
5 0.0% 0.7% 5.3% 20.9% 41.0% 32.1% * * *
6 0.0% 0.2% 1.6% 8.5% 25.0% 39.2% 25.6% * *
7 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 3.0% 11.8% 27.8% 36.4% 20.4% *
8 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.0% 4.8% 15.1% 29.6% 33.2% 16.3%

命中率（光の粉）

n/m 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1 28.1% 71.9% * * * * * * *
2 7.9% 40.4% 51.7% * * * * * *
3 2.2% 17.1% 43.6% 37.1% * * * * *
4 0.6% 6.4% 24.5% 41.8% 26.7% * * * *
5 0.2% 2.2% 11.5% 29.4% 37.5% 19.2% * * *
6 0.0% 0.8% 4.8% 16.5% 31.7% 32.4% 13.8% * *
7 0.0% 0.2% 1.9% 8.1% 20.8% 31.9% 27.1% 9.9% *
8 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 3.7% 11.7% 23.9% 30.5% 22.3% 7.1%

急所ランク+3（ピントレンズ）

n/m 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0<n
1 66.8% 33.2% * * * * * * * 33.2%
2 44.6% 44.4% 11.0% * * * * * * 55.4%
3 29.8% 44.4% 22.1% 3.7% * * * * * 70.2%
4 19.9% 39.6% 29.5% 9.8% 1.2% * * * * 80.1%
5 13.3% 33.1% 32.9% 16.3% 4.1% 0.4% * * * 86.7%
6 8.9% 26.5% 32.9% 21.8% 8.1% 1.6% 0.1% * * 91.1%
7 5.9% 20.6% 30.8% 25.5% 12.7% 3.8% 0.6% 0.0% * 94.1%
8 4.0% 15.8% 27.4% 27.3% 16.9% 6.7% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 96.0%

急所ランク+2

n/m 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0<n
1 75.0% 25.0% * * * * * * * 25.0%
2 56.3% 37.5% 6.3% * * * * * * 43.8%
3 42.2% 42.2% 14.1% 1.6% * * * * * 57.8%
4 31.6% 42.2% 21.1% 4.7% 0.4% * * * * 68.4%
5 23.7% 39.6% 26.4% 8.8% 1.5% 0.1% * * * 76.3%
6 17.8% 35.6% 29.7% 13.2% 3.3% 0.4% 0.0% * * 82.2%
7 13.3% 31.1% 31.1% 17.3% 5.8% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% * 86.7%
8 10.0% 26.7% 31.1% 20.8% 8.7% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 90.0%

ピントレンズ

4発の分岐（ピントレンズ）

n発分 外し 命中 急所 命中分岐 急所分岐 全体分岐
4 0 4 0 40.3% 19.9% 8.0%
5 0 4 1 40.3% 39.6% 16.0%
6 0 4 2 40.3% 29.5% 11.9%
7 0 4 3 40.3% 9.8% 3.9%
8 0 4 4 40.3% 1.2% 0.5%
3 1 3 0 41.1% 29.8% 12.3%
4 1 3 1 41.1% 44.4% 18.3%
5 1 3 2 41.1% 22.1% 9.1%
6 1 3 3 41.1% 3.7% 1.5%
2 2 2 0 15.7% 44.6% 7.0%
3 2 2 1 15.7% 44.4% 7.0%
4 2 2 2 15.7% 11.0% 1.7%
1 3 1 0 2.7% 66.8% 1.8%
2 3 1 1 2.7% 33.2% 0.9%
0 4 0 0 0.2% 100.0% 0.2%

4発の期待値（ピントレンズ）

n発分 期待値 累計
0 0.2% 100.0%
1 1.8% 99.8%
2 7.9% 98.0%
3 19.2% 90.1%
4 28.0% 70.9%
5 25.0% 42.9%
6 13.4% 17.8%
7 3.9% 4.4%
8 0.5% 0.5%

3発の分岐（ピントレンズ）

n発分 外し 命中 急所 命中分岐 急所分岐 全体分岐
3 0 3 0 50.6% 29.8% 15.1%
4 0 3 1 50.6% 44.4% 22.5%
5 0 3 2 50.6% 22.1% 11.2%
6 0 3 3 50.6% 3.7% 1.9%
2 1 2 0 38.7% 44.6% 17.3%
3 1 2 1 38.7% 44.4% 17.2%
4 1 2 2 38.7% 11.0% 4.3%
1 2 1 0 9.9% 66.8% 6.6%
2 2 1 1 9.9% 33.2% 3.3%
0 3 0 0 0.8% 100.0% 0.8%

3発の期待値（ピントレンズ）

n発分 期待値 累計
0 0.8% 100.0%
1 6.6% 99.2%
2 20.5% 92.6%
3 32.2% 72.0%
4 26.8% 39.8%
5 11.2% 13.0%
6 1.9% 1.9%

ピントレンズ・光の粉

4発の分岐（ピントレンズ・光の粉）

n発分 外し 命中 急所 命中分岐 急所分岐 全体分岐
4 0 4 0 26.7% 19.9% 5.3%
5 0 4 1 26.7% 39.6% 10.6%
6 0 4 2 26.7% 29.5% 7.9%
7 0 4 3 26.7% 9.8% 2.6%
8 0 4 4 26.7% 1.2% 0.3%
3 1 3 0 41.8% 29.8% 12.4%
4 1 3 1 41.8% 44.4% 18.6%
5 1 3 2 41.8% 22.1% 9.2%
6 1 3 3 41.8% 3.7% 1.5%
2 2 2 0 24.5% 44.6% 10.9%
3 2 2 1 24.5% 44.4% 10.9%
4 2 2 2 24.5% 11.0% 2.7%
1 3 1 0 6.4% 66.8% 4.3%
2 3 1 1 6.4% 33.2% 2.1%
0 4 0 0 0.6% 100.0% 0.6%

4発の期待値（ピントレンズ・光の粉）

n発分 期待値 累計
0 0.6% 100.0%
1 4.3% 99.4%
2 13.1% 95.1%
3 23.3% 82.0%
4 26.6% 58.7%
5 19.8% 32.1%
6 9.4% 12.3%
7 2.6% 2.9%
8 0.3% 0.3%

3発の分岐（ピントレンズ・光の粉）

n発分 外し 命中 急所 命中分岐 急所分岐 全体分岐
3 0 3 0 37.1% 29.8% 11.1%
4 0 3 1 37.1% 44.4% 16.5%
5 0 3 2 37.1% 22.1% 8.2%
6 0 3 3 37.1% 3.7% 1.4%
2 1 2 0 43.6% 44.6% 19.4%
3 1 2 1 43.6% 44.4% 19.3%
4 1 2 2 43.6% 11.0% 4.8%
1 2 1 0 17.1% 66.8% 11.4%
2 2 1 1 17.1% 33.2% 5.7%
0 3 0 0 2.2% 100.0% 2.2%

3発の期待値（ピントレンズ・光の粉）

n発分 期待値 累計
0 2.2% 100.0%
1 11.4% 97.8%
2 25.1% 86.4%
3 30.4% 61.3%
4 21.3% 30.9%
5 8.2% 9.6%
6 1.4% 1.4%

フラット

4発の分岐（フラット）

n発分 外し 命中 急所 命中分岐 急所分岐 全体分岐
4 0 4 0 40.3% 31.6% 12.8%
5 0 4 1 40.3% 42.2% 17.0%
6 0 4 2 40.3% 21.1% 8.5%
7 0 4 3 40.3% 4.7% 1.9%
8 0 4 4 40.3% 0.4% 0.2%
3 1 3 0 41.1% 42.2% 17.3%
4 1 3 1 41.1% 42.2% 17.3%
5 1 3 2 41.1% 14.1% 5.8%
6 1 3 3 41.1% 1.6% 0.6%
2 2 2 0 15.7% 56.3% 8.8%
3 2 2 1 15.7% 37.5% 5.9%
4 2 2 2 15.7% 6.3% 1.0%
1 3 1 0 2.7% 75.0% 2.0%
2 3 1 1 2.7% 25.0% 0.7%
0 4 0 0 0.2% 100.0% 0.2%

4発の期待値（フラット）

n発分 期待値 累計
0 0.2% 100.0%
1 2.0% 99.8%
2 9.5% 97.8%
3 23.2% 88.3%
4 31.1% 65.1%
5 22.8% 34.0%
6 9.1% 11.2%
7 1.9% 2.0%
8 0.2% 0.2%

3発の分岐（フラット）

n発分 外し 命中 急所 命中分岐 急所分岐 全体分岐
3 0 3 0 50.6% 42.2% 21.3%
4 0 3 1 50.6% 42.2% 21.3%
5 0 3 2 50.6% 14.1% 7.1%
6 0 3 3 50.6% 1.6% 0.8%
2 1 2 0 38.7% 56.3% 21.8%
3 1 2 1 38.7% 37.5% 14.5%
4 1 2 2 38.7% 6.3% 2.4%
1 2 1 0 9.9% 75.0% 7.4%
2 2 1 1 9.9% 25.0% 2.5%
0 3 0 0 0.8% 100.0% 0.8%

3発の期待値（フラット）

n発分 期待値 累計
0 0.8% 100.0%
1 7.4% 99.2%
2 24.2% 91.8%
3 35.9% 67.5%
4 23.8% 31.7%
5 7.1% 7.9%
6 0.8% 0.8%

光の粉

4発の分岐（光の粉）

n発分 外し 命中 急所 命中分岐 急所分岐 全体分岐
4 0 4 0 26.7% 31.6% 8.4%
5 0 4 1 26.7% 42.2% 11.3%
6 0 4 2 26.7% 21.1% 5.6%
7 0 4 3 26.7% 4.7% 1.3%
8 0 4 4 26.7% 0.4% 0.1%
3 1 3 0 41.8% 42.2% 17.6%
4 1 3 1 41.8% 42.2% 17.6%
5 1 3 2 41.8% 14.1% 5.9%
6 1 3 3 41.8% 1.6% 0.7%
2 2 2 0 24.5% 56.3% 13.8%
3 2 2 1 24.5% 37.5% 9.2%
4 2 2 2 24.5% 6.3% 1.5%
1 3 1 0 6.4% 75.0% 4.8%
2 3 1 1 6.4% 25.0% 1.6%
0 4 0 0 0.6% 100.0% 0.6%

4発の期待値（光の粉）

n発分 期待値 累計
0 0.6% 100.0%
1 4.8% 99.4%
2 15.4% 94.6%
3 26.8% 79.2%
4 27.6% 52.4%
5 17.1% 24.8%
6 6.3% 7.6%
7 1.3% 1.4%
8 0.1% 0.1%

3発の分岐（光の粉）

n発分 外し 命中 急所 命中分岐 急所分岐 全体分岐
3 0 3 0 37.1% 42.2% 15.7%
4 0 3 1 37.1% 42.2% 15.7%
5 0 3 2 37.1% 14.1% 5.2%
6 0 3 3 37.1% 1.6% 0.6%
2 1 2 0 43.6% 56.3% 24.5%
3 1 2 1 43.6% 37.5% 16.3%
4 1 2 2 43.6% 6.3% 2.7%
1 2 1 0 17.1% 75.0% 12.8%
2 2 1 1 17.1% 25.0% 4.3%
0 3 0 0 2.2% 100.0% 2.2%

3発の期待値（光の粉）

n発分 期待値 累計
0 2.2% 100.0%
1 12.8% 97.8%
2 28.8% 85.0%
3 32.0% 56.2%
4 18.4% 24.2%
5 5.2% 5.8%
6 0.6% 0.6%